Apple, iPad, money, politics, and hippies

In case you were living under a rock this past week - Apple finally announced what had to have been the worst kept secret in history.  The iPad 2 is finally official and going on sale in less than a week.  

When Steve took the stage to offically announce iPad 2 - the hipsters rejoiced as their savior from “complex technology” (and their paychecks) took the stage to reveal how Apple was going to milk another 500 - 800 dollars out of them this month.  Nothing is more fun to watch than a hipster who foams at the mouth as he lusts over a new hipster item which every one of them will have in less than a week.

But what is probably more disturbing than anything else - is that with everything else going on in the world - the iPad 2 took up a majority of the online news cycles.  We have protests around the world, civil unrest, state budgets in the red, and the hipsters sit foaming at the mouth for their newest piece of technology.

Now - I can’t continue without being totally honest.  I am seriously considering getting an iPad 2.  I have finally found room in my life where it could be of use - and I do have an idea for an application I would like to do on the iPad which wouldn’t work on the iPhone.  I will note - I DO NOT have an original iPad.  I didn’t get into the hype of the “magical” iPad before it was released.  Instead I have observed the device after it had been released - playing with it here and there - and critically considering getting it (it is not a light investment).

With all that is going on in the world - it never fails to amaze me what goes through the social spheres which I am connected in and the online news networks.  While the protests and civil unrest have a few stories which appear on the front page - the majority of this past week was devoted to the iPad.  People debated in forums and chat rooms whether it was worth purchasing, what the advantages of the device over the previous iPad was, as well as speculating on the total ram of the device.

And yet….

And yet we have people protesting across the world for their freedom from oppressive governments.  Something that you would normally associate hipsters with taking up the cause for.  Instead they are glued to Steve Job’s black turtle neck getting their marching orders for the next few weeks on where to devote their cash.

Life does continue to go on - but somtimes its good to stop and observe what is going on in the rest of the world.  We can’t always continue on with our plans in life - just look at how thousand’s of people’s lives have been disrupted by protests and the like around the world.

And while people protest for their freedom from oppressive govements around the world - public workers in Wisconsin are protesting due to them having to pay a little more into their benefits.

What have we devolved into as a society where we don’t even protest for worthwhile causes anymore.  What we have become is a group of hippies - wanting to protest anything we can in the name of “sticking it to the man.”

With all of this going on - its been funny to see a recent trend of people crying foul of parents raising their kids how they choose to do so.  Stating instead that kids should be raised gender neutral - how dare a parent decide to raise their daughter to like dresses and pink?  That is just “destroing” civilization - at least according to them.  Let parents raise their kids how they want.  If they want to allow their daughters to like pink frilly dresses and have imaginary tea parties then let them.  If they choose not to - then let them.  To them I say - get a job hippie.  

It’s time to de-hippify life.  Lets get back to reality.

Why the healthcare reform is crazy

Call it what you will.  Obamacare, Health care Reform, #hcr, the destruction of freedom, or the ultimate unfunded mandate.  Regardless of what you call, the implications of its potential passage are historic.  For quite a few reasons.  The information is based upon the proposed update which changes some of the provisions which were passed on Christmas Eve 2009 - but knowing how things are, things will always change.  So the following is a moving target.

First off lets start with the basics. 

Per an article on the Washington Post the percent of Americans covered would rise from 83% to 95% of eligible Americans would be covered by the year 2014.  Per The US Census Bureau the estimated US population as of July 2009 was 307,006,550.  Assuming population doesn’t change(just for comparison reasons - we all know this number will only increase by 2014) the current amount of the US population which is currently covered by insurance is currently estimated at 254,815,436(83%).  This leaves 52,191,114 of population currently without insurance per these numbers, but somehow the CBO brings this number in at 32 million.  That’s a staggering difference of 20 million people.  Im not sure where these went to, but lets go with the US Census information.

This (admittedly) a large amount of uninsured, but an interesting find by the Kaiser Foundation revealed that

More than half (62%) of non elderly uninsured adults have no education beyond high school, making them less able to get higher-skilled jobs that are more likely to provide health coverage. Those with less education are also more likely to be uninsured for longer periods of time.6

Combine that with another item found in the report that only 9% of those uninsured are elderly.  And you have some interesting information.  That leaves 47,493,914 which fall outside of the elderly mark.  If we break this down to the amount which the Kaiser foundation links to education being a factor then you have 29,446,227 of those uninsured which can be linked back to the education issue mentioned above.  This leaves 18,047,687 which (admittedly) is still a large amount of uninsured. 

Lets look at the proposed solution.  Bringing this number up to 95% insured we then have a total of 291,656,223 Americans insured.  Increasing the number of insured by 36,840,787.  Again, this is based upon the Kaiser Study as well as the US Census Bureau numbers. I’m not sure how the CBO brings this number in at 32 million, but they have.  I just wanted to bring these numbers up, but for the rest of the time, lets go with this mystical 32 million which was pushed out.

An increase of millions of people in a period of four years who are insured and thrown into the system is going to have consequences if they are thrown in due to government mandates and not through natural market forces.  When combined with a few of the other provisions placed out by the revised bill, this bill spells nothing but trouble.

The newly revamped bill(if accepted) would require everyone to carry insurance, or face a fine.  Of course, there are provisions for those who are poor.  Some argue that by doing this, we will lower the cost of insurance, and while there can be no definitive proof either way until after the bill would be implemented, you can look at another insurance which is mandatory and draw some conclusions.  If you look at car insurance, mandatory car insurance actually raises rates.  This was seen first hand when moving from Michigan to Wisconsin before mandatory insurance and minimum coverage.  With the same coverage, which is above state mandated minimums, when the move to Wisconsin was made, the premium dropped by over one hundred dollars per six months.  Now that mandated insurance has come to Wisconsin, the rates have increased back to those rates seen in Michigan due to the mandatory rates.  Mandatory car insurance rates actually increased the cost of car insurance, not reduced it. 

 Another point and problem with this item is that taxes and fines are going to increase for those with private insurance.  If an insurance plan is considered to be a “Cadillac” insurance plan, than per the Washing Post, your insurer could face a tax up to 10,200 dollars for an individual plan or up to 27,500 for a family plan.  Per the CBO, the estimate is that in 2013 only about 14% of family policies and 19% of individual policies would fall into this category, but by 2019 37% of family and 41% of individual plans would qualify as a Cadillac plan.  If the cost of plan increases the company has only a handful of options.  They can either reduce the coverage which they provide - which may be prevented by the final legislation- or increase costs of the plan.  As the number of plans increase which fall into the Cadillac health plan category, the increased costs will be passed back onto the consumer which will then decrease the number of employers who can offer health care or the amount that they can subsidize for the employee as part of their benefits package.  (let me interject a personal opinion here - if costs rise for the insurance company - they will more than likely spread the cost out amongst all of their subscribers even to those who don’t have a Cadillac plan and will result in higher premiums for everyone, including and especially those who are purchasing premiums on their own)

 Something else which is fun is this quote from The Weekly Standard the cost of 940 billion (the number touted by the Obama administration of the cost of the reform plan over ten years) is only this number due to manipulation.

For a variety of reasons, this tally doesn’t remotely reflect the bill’s real ten-year costs.  First, it includes 2010 as the initial year.  As most people are well aware, 2010 has now been underway for some time.  Therefore, the CBO would normally count 2011 as the first year of its analysis, just as it counted 2010 as the first year when analyzing the initial House health bill in the middle of 2009.  But under strict instructions from Democratic leaders, and over strong objections from Republicans, the CBO dutifully scored 2010 as the first year of the latest version of Obamacare.  If the clock were started in 2011, the first full year that the bill could possibly be in effect, the CBO says that the bill’s ten-year costs would be $1.2 trillion.

That is wilful manipulation of the total cost of the cost of the healthcare bill.  A manipulation which makes it more palatable for the average American to handle and deal with.  With people, there is always that line in which the cost is more palatable.  Its amazing if an item is at 199 compared to just 229 how many more people will buy it.  The psychology of pricing from Ohio State University looks at this concept and calls it Odd Numbered Pricing.  This manipulation of the price to make it more palatable plays with the consumer, allowing someone to see it as more acceptable.

What is further worrying is found further down in the article.  The article continues with this scary paragraph. 

But $2.0 trillion wouldn’t be the total ten-year costs.  Instead, that would merely be the “gross cost of coverage provisions.”  Based on earlier incarnations of the proposed overhaul, the total costs would be about a third higher (the exact number can’t be gleaned from the CBO’s analysis, which is only preliminary and is not a full scoring) — making the total price-tag between $2.5 and $3 trillion over the bill’s real first decade.

They also mention how this will be paid for.  Below is a brief outline of what will be done to further pay for this high priced package.

1. Divert 1.1 trillion from Medicare to Obamacare
2. Reduction of 25,000 in Medicare Advantage benefits per enrollee except for South Florida residents due to deals made to pass the bill (great, even more people in Florida)
3. Increased defecits in the annual budget
   1. Defecit will increase by 100 billioin from 2017 to 2019 alone if the “doc fix” portion is implemented
4. Premiums will rise by ten to thirteen percent on the individul market over what the current law/market would have them at in the same given timeframe.
5. 23 million people, by 2019, would still be uninsured (if 32 million are currently uninsured and 23 million will uninsured by 2019 - thats only an increase of 9 million would would have insurnace at a cost of almost 1 trillion dollars)

 If this bill passes, anyone who voted for it (and signed it into law) in both the house and the senate should be put on a list and voted out of office this November who are up for vote.  If this monkey law passes, any lawmaker who voted for the bill(regardless of political party) should be charged with treason, but for those who want the bill - they will hail the passers of the bill as heros.  They will be willing to look at those who pass the bill as heros instead of the ugly truth that it is, something which unnecessarily burdens the american people and does not increase coverage, but actually increases the cost of coverage and destroys the current quality of care which the freemarket has provided. 

Obama is cocky enough to state that history will prove he’s correct with the passage of the bill.  I guess history will be written with the truth, indicating that this was indeed a failure.

And for the record, yes, im a conservative.  Not necessarily Republican, but conservative (if I happened across a conservative Democrat, I would vote for them)